Crypto markets (like most markets) tend to move through recognizable phases rather than a straight line up or down.
The rough phases
- Accumulation — prices have been flat or falling for a while, sentiment is poor, and most retail attention has moved on. Experienced investors often see this as the highest risk-adjusted entry window, precisely because it's unpopular.
- Bull market / markup — prices trend upward, media attention increases, and new participants pile in, often accelerating the trend further.
- Distribution / euphoria — prices are near highs, optimism is widespread, and it becomes easy to assume the trend will continue indefinitely.
- Bear market / markdown — prices decline, sometimes sharply, and sentiment sours.
Why this framework matters
A lot of investor pain comes from doing the opposite of what these phases would suggest — buying aggressively during euphoria and panic-selling during the bear phase. Simply being aware of which phase the market is roughly in can help you check your own emotional reaction against the crowd's.
No one can identify these phases with certainty in real time — this is a mental model for managing risk, not a timing tool.